MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SW-CNTRL-ERN MO...SW IL...FAR NW AR...NE OK AND FAR
SE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191740Z - 191915Z
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL AND ERN MO SWWD
ACROSS SW MO AND FAR SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A TORNADO
THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL-ERN MO AND SW
IL. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB SFC LOW IN WRN MO WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL AND SRN IND. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR SE KS INTO NE OK.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR
THE SFC LOW IN WRN MO WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING FOCUSED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION IN WRN
MO OVER THE NEXT HOUR WHERE ECHOES ARE STARTING TO BE OBSERVED NEAR
THE KS-MO STATE-LINE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT CNTRL MO EWD INTO SW IL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS MATURE.
..BROYLES.. 04/19/2011
| 
No comments:
Post a Comment