The excitement of a Mesoscale Discussion!

Mesoscale Discussion 225

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MO ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 102015Z - 102215Z SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT IS DIAGONALLY NE/SW ACROSS MO FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY LIMITING PARAMETER FOR SEVERE IS THE INSTABILITY. WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S F AND DEWPOINTS MID/UPR 50S...UPDRAFTS WILL BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER A VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS AN INTENSE S/WV AND 100 KT 500 MB WIND MAX TRACKS FROM IA TO WI THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE VERY IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC SUPPORT WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 60KT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NOT ONLY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WHICH WOULD ENHANCE A WIND DAMAGE CONCERN BUT ALSO DEVELOP AT LEAST LOW LEVEL ROTATION FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE CURRENT LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING VICINITY COU SWWD TOWARD SGF SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY INTENSITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN/SRN MO INTO CENTRAL IL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

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It's a storm-lover's hope! The MCD is a posted discussion by members of the NOAA Storm Prediction Center regarding the potential for a severe weather outbreak for a particular region. It's not a formal warning or even a watch, but a discussion about the possibility of there being a storm watch or warning issued. Essentially, as NOAA meteorologists analyze their data, if they see a pattern coming together that might result in severe weather, they'll post a Mesoscale Discussion.
It just so happens that they recently posted one for my region in the past hour. It may all fall apart if the conditions deteriorate, or it might do all or more of what they anticipate, which is where the excitement lies. It's certainly unpredictable!  We just can't know what the Master is going to do.  In the bible, in Genesis 9:13-15, after the great flood subsides, God indicates how he'll use the rainbow to represent his promise to never again destroy all flesh by a flood.  What is remarkable, however, is how he hints to the level he is involved with the natural processes of the earth.  Vs 14 reads, "It shall come about, when I bring a cloud over the earth, that the bow will be seen in the cloud."   When he "brings a cloud over the earth..."  It is awesome to think, that every cloud or storm that thunders across the land, is really a stroke of a brush in the Master's hand.